Recreation and tourism represent a major opportunity and connection for managing the interaction between people and ecosystems. The aim of the project is to identify iconic mammal species associated to wildlife watching economic revenue, and project their future distribution to estimate the impact of alternative socio-economic scenarios on the services they supply. Projections will be based on coupled RCP-SSP scenarios of climate change (IPSL Global Circulation Model) and land use change (Land Use Harmonzation V2). The effect of contrasting scenarios on ecosystem service supply will be tested: strong climate mitigation (RCP2.6-SSP1), middle-of-the-way (RCP4.5-SSP3), and fossil-fuelled economy (RCP8.5-SSP5). The difference in distribution of iconic mammals in protected areas between scenarios will represent the opportunity lost or gained globally for wilidlife watching revenue.
By assigning values to an ES provided by individual species, we will indirectly value the biodiversity that underpins the ES. Projecting these results under alternative scenarios of global change, BIOSCENES will provide a tool for planning global policies as well as local adaptation measures to maintain this value over time. To our knowledge this is the first application of land use and climate projections to assess the effects of policies on ecosystem services linked to single species.