The democratic change that took place in several countries across the world since the 1970s and, more evidently, the rapid transition towards democracy of Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall, has inspired the so-called End of history theory.
The so-called euphoria of the 1990s has failed in the 21st century, as shown by the latest Freedom in the World annual survey, which recorded the 13th consecutive year of worsening in global freedom. Although the hypothesis of a reverse wave is probably not underway, the decline of democracy is raising an interesting debate among scholars and political practitioners.
This phenomenon takes different forms depending on the regions and countries taken into consideration, such as the increase of repressive measures in authoritarian states, or the manipulation of constitutions in hybrid regimes. However, the decline of democracy also occurs in consolidated democracies, assuming the form of a general decreasing confidence in liberal values and ideas and, in some cases, the weakening of institutions that protect freedoms of expression and association and the rule of law.
At the same time, several political developments are taking place in countries member of the European Union, such as the party systems volatility, the emergence of new political cleavages and the rise of populist and extreme right parties.
Relying on a mixed-methods research strategy that combines qualitative and quantitative analysis, the project pursues a double goal: on one hand, it disentangles the complex relationship between the democratic decline and the political changes occurring in countries in the European Union. On the other hand, it brings out the similarities and differences of these variations in the EUs sub-regions through cross-regional and inter-regional comparisons.
As shown, the interaction between the decline of democracy and the political changes within the EU countries constitutes a stimulating and under-investigated issue for the ongoing debate on both global and European political dynamics. The research proposal contributes to the debate on this issue in several additional ways, with theoretical and empirical insights.
The project presents at least four major elements of originality and innovativeness.
The research fills some remaining gaps in the literature by exploring the preliminary stages of the decline of democracy within democratic contexts, as those of the EU countries. After all, most literature focuses on the modes of the democratic backsliding or on cases of complete democratic breakdown. On the other side, some studies take into account the losses of democratic qualities and the issue of democratic deconsolidation but circumscribing their explanatory efforts on some clearer cases from Eastern Europe. Therefore, the research project aims at exploring an under-investigated dimension of the decline of democracy in the European Union, as its the relationship with the volatility of party systems, the success of populist and far-right parties and the rise of a new pro-EU and anti-EU cleavage.
In addition, the research is not narrowed to a single field of study but uses cross-disciplinary literature. It contributes to the theoretical and empirical body both of studies on democratic backsliding, and of those on political parties and party systems. In fact, it highlights the multifaceted relationship between the decline of democracy and the current political changes that are affecting the domestic political scenario of the European Union members.
The democratic retreat in the pre-2004 EU countries will also be analyzed focusing on 2008 economic crisis impact (Morlino and Raniolo, 2018), which has generated fertile ground for a populist political wave and a populist political agenda (Zielonka 2018).
Finally, the use of the CAS (Comparative Area Studies) approach that combines the context sensitivity and knowledge of area studies with the explicit use of comparative methods. It aims at understanding if the political changes are geographically linked to some specific sub-regions of Europe or if they concern the European Union as a whole, as well as to developing new theories and concepts based on comparative and context-sensitive tests. It seems to be the appropriate means to generate both contributions to broader disciplinary and theoretical debates, and better insights into the cases.