Based on current knowledge of the impacts of total nitrogen deposition on ecosystems, this project aims to quantitatively assess the impact on the biodiversity (BD) of the herbaceous and shrub communities of the Italian forests of the main nitrogen gaseous compounds and tropospheric ozone. The expected time window is from 2000 to 2018. Aware that 19 years are not sufficiently representative for an assessment of the BD variations of the examined plant communities, instead we want to investigate on the spatial variations of this BD, thus highlighting the most critical areas due to the negative effects of the considered gaseous pollutants.
In detail, the project will consist of four steps.
1st step. Origin and management of the vegetation database, climate database and gaseous pollution.
2nd step. Calculation of biodiversity indicators and Ellemberg's indices.
3rd step. Random forest analysis. Relational statistical analysis (non-linear regressive models). Spatial data analysis.
4th step. Realization of a risk map (with estimation errors) and identification of areas at greatest risk of biodiversity loss.
In the research a series of methodological procedures will be tested for the definition of the most appropriate for the calculation of biodiversity, for the spatial representation of the quantitative relationships between the variables of interest, for the territorial distribution of biodiversity loss hot spots, for the development of forecast models for loss of biodiversity based on future environmental, climate and pollution drivers.
The final result of the research will therefore be the drawing up of a risk map in which the areas at greatest risk of biodiversity loss will be highlighted, taking into account the current policies for restricting emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. This map can therefore be used to program environmental protection measures in order to comply with international directives such as the Convention on Biological Diversity.
The study constitutes an interesting challenge in that it is carried out in an environment of high complexity like the Italian territory, which is characterized by climatic, geomorphological, edaphic, vegetational and distribution characteristics of gaseous pollutants such as reduced and oxidized nitrogen compounds and tropospheric ozone. This study was never conducted for Italy, and therefore, represents a first exploratory step aimed at the development of analysis methods, management of large databases and spatial representation of the variables examined.
Consequently, the methodologies and procedures for defining the cause-effect relationships between environmental, climatic, physical and occupational variables and the various biodiversity indicators of shrub and herbaceous communities can represent a great added value for the planning of intervention aimed at preventing and protecting biodiversity in Italy.