Flooding is a matter of substantial concern in Italy, because some human activities (such as land use, rapid urbanization and expanding exposure of assets at risk) and climate related issues contribute to an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events. In particular, as the Italian cities increasingly come under threat from flooding, stakeholders are searching for ways to build resilience into the foundations of modern urban centers.
As part of a more flexible and holistic approach to flood risk, this proposal aims to:
- develop intelligent algorithms enabling early detection of rainfall/runoff thresholds triggering potential urban flood events and support communication to the public
- provide modelling frameworks for urban flood risk under the explicit consideration of uncertainty in an urban living lab context with all local actors
- analyze and assess different systems of flood resilience in urban environments corresponding to urban floods
- develop new integrative flood resilience systems as a "safety chain", and develop strategies for integration in existing flood defense systems and urban development
- provide a series of Best Practice Guidance based on the research outcomes to support decision makers in mitigation and adaptation actions.
From 1944 to 2012, the Italian government paid more than €65 billion for damages caused by flooding and landslides, i.e. an average cost of about €1 billion per year.
However, if we consider only the last three years (2010-2012), then the average annual cost rose more than twice. Therefore, it is evident that flood risk analysis and management should become top priorities for authorities and stakeholders in Italy. Reliable early warning services and effective flood resilience measures play a crucial role in reducing these impacts.
Our research proposal is an interdisciplinary project covering scientific and socio-economic aspects of floods. It aims to develop tools and solutions to limit damage and facilitate the recovery process of urban areas from flooding.
In delivering the project outcomes, we will provide new insight and improved understanding of a number of key challenges:
1) citizens are no longer considered as passive, potential ¿victims¿ of floods, but are engaged as active contributors in the process of flood monitoring and mapping, enabling research and city authorities to improve flood monitoring and early warning in a process of co-creation. The targeted co-creation of this new, innovative public service is realized by bringing together all actors in urban living labs. In the urban living lab the specific knowledge and know-how of all different actors is exchanged in all possible directions. e.g. the local knowledge of citizens on recurring flood events and extents serves as feedback for modellers; city authorities share knowledge on the practical management of and relevant data on the sewer network and urban water; research is sending push messages to engaged citizens to obtain additional and crucial near real-time data on the course of the potential flood event; researchers use this feedback as alternative validation strategy. All actors benefit from improved insights and forecasts of urban pluvial floods, enabling a better early warning communication towards the general public by the local authorities and a reduction of potential economic damage;
2) we propose a statistical methodology to derive vulnerability maps of water and sewer networks, which help monitor the urban drainage system, prevent roads disruptions and water service failures;
3) the development of a model to simulate the levee breach is of utmost interest to a proper planning and management of the flood prone areas;
4) a Decision Support Tool for the identification of the best strategy for adapting to climate and land use changes will be developed. This tool will allow to identify the most useful BMPs, among the usual ones in the technical literature (i.e. detention ponds, infiltration trenches, pervious pavement, green roofs, etc.);
5) the understanding and modelling of the mutual relationship existing between society and hydrology has a key role for an effective planning of the risk mitigation strategies. The aim of this project is to explore new methods to improve flood-mitigation decision processes. A growing body of evidence suggests that the involvement of the local actors is a key aspect in successful decision making. The socio-hydrological cascade model will provide different scenarios of risk mitigation strategies.