A new measles epidemic model: Analysis, identification and prediction
A new measles epidemic model is proposed and identified by using real data relative to the number of confirmed infected patients in Italy in the period 1970-2018. The possibility of predicting the number of new infection is important for an efficient resource scheduling. Only in the last years great attention has been devoted to reliable data collection; therefore, in general, the model parameters identification is not an easy task. Moreover, the available data are 'corrupted' by human intervention, such as prevention campaign, or, whenever possible, vaccination.