regression analysis

New statistical RI index allow to better track the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

COVID-19 pandemic in Italy displayed a spatial distribution that made the tracking of its time course quite difficult. The most relevant anomaly was the marked spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 diffusion. Lombardia region accounted for around 60% of fatal cases (while hosting 15% of Italian population). Moreover, 86% of fatalities concentrated in four Northern Italy regions. The ‘explosive’ outbreak of COVID-19 in Lombardia at the very beginning of pandemic fatally biased the R-like statistics routinely used to control the disease dynamics.

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