Ricerc@Sapienza

Acanthophyllum squarrosum and two closely related species, A. heratense and A. laxiusculum (Caryophyllaceae), form a complex that covers parts of subalpine steppes of the Irano-Turanian (IT) region. In this study, we explored the genetic structure and phylogeography of this complex based on partial sequences of two chloroplasts (psbA–trnH and rpl32–trnL (UAG)) and two nuclear (EST24 and nrITS) DNA regions. We analysed 80 individuals from eight populations and detected 12 chloroplast haplotypes, 16 and eight nuclear alleles in EST24 and nrITS sequences, respectively.

In this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe ?ora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate scenarios in modern time, 2030, 2070 and 2080. Our results showed that A. squarrosum has a suitable habitat in ca. 1 million km2 (33% of our study area) and will likely experience a northward shift, gaining new habitat in Azerbaijan, Armenia and North of Afghanistan in the near decades.