On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest
Skillful predictions of the frequency of flood events over long lead times (e.g., from one to ten years ahead) are essential for governments and institutions making near-term flood risk plans. However, little is known about current flood prediction capabilities over annual to decadal time scales. Here we address this knowledge gap at 286 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations across the U.S. Midwest using precipitation and temperature decadal predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 models.