With this research project, we intend to carry out a systematic quantitative analysis of the empirical economic literature on the debt-growth ratio. The statistical tool we intend to use is a meta-analysis, which will allow us:
- To qualify and quantify the effect of public debt on economic growth;
- To analyze the degree of heterogeneity of the studies selected according to PRISMA statements;
- To perform an analysis of both categorical and continuous moderators (and thus determine whether the heterogeneity in the results depends on the year of publication of the study, the income level of the sample considered, other variables used in the estimates, the methodology used, etc.);
- To identify whether publication bias is present and correct it if necessary.
The focus of this research project is not to try to answer this question using a single state as a reference (by estimating a VAR for example), nor a more or less large sample of economies (using a panel approach). Nor do we intend to build a theoretical growth model and try to calibrate its
parameters, as this would not bring any novelty in science.
The proposal described here refers to the study of the literature on the relationship between debt and economic growth by performing a meta-analysis following the PRISMA standards (Moher et al. [2009]). This approach is universally recognized and guarantees the scientific nature of the research, providing ample opportunity for the publication of the results.
Moreover, there are currently no meta-analyses on this relationship in the literature, apart from the study by Moore and Thomas [2010], which only considers 17 studies, but mainly refers to the elasticity of growth with respect to debt, and analyses fewer moderators than we want to encode.
Moreover, their meta-analysis obviously does not consider post-2010 studies, a period in which the literature on the debt-growth nexus proliferated. We, therefore, believe that a step in this direction would be a great scientific contribution since only literature reviews have been published
(Saungweme and Odhiambo [2018]) and this paper would guarantee a quantitative view of them.
The methodology we intend to follow in developing a meta-analysis of the literature regarding the debt-growth relationship is based on Stanley and Jarrell (2005)¿s seminal paper. In this research, we will satisfy and briefly analyze the reporting guidelines established by the members of the Meta-Analysis of Economics Research Network (MAER-Net) (Stanley et al. [2013]), recently updated by Havránek et al. (2020) (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/joes.12363). As the research strand of meta-analysis applied to economic issues is rapidly expanding, we intend to comply with the protocols we are about to describe, as they are in
line with the expectations of the editorial board of the "Journal of Economic Surveys" (the leading journal for the publication of economic meta-analyses).