Constantly active volcanoes have dramatic impact on the nearby population in term of threats to human and animal lives and health, damages to the infrastructure and associated economic costs.
In order to enhance volcanic hazard assessment, it is fundamental to understand the link between sub-aerial magmatic processes and surficial manifestations preceding and accompanying eruptions, and how this modulates different types of eruptive styles. Using Mt. Etna as case study, this project will provide new tools for interpreting polybaric-polythermal changes in the plumbing system performing microanalyses of major/trace elements in natural/synthetic clinopyroxene, plagioclase and coexisting glasses. With the application of thermobarometers, hygrometers and geospeedometers on natural samples it will be possible to characterise the intensive variables involved in the evolution of both crystals and plumbing system.
Furthermore, the application of a novel chronometric model (NIDIS) on the intra-crystals chemical changes will be useful to retrieve the timescales of pre-eruptive processes that will be integrated with monitoring signals allowing to provide a conceptual model of the temporal evolution of magma dynamics at Mt. Etna.
The final aim is to identify and quantify the fundamental cause-effect relationship between sub-volcanic magmatic-geophysical signals and eruptive style, in order to provide local-to-widespread indications for eruption forecasting.
To reduce uncertainty in volcanic hazard mitigation, it is crucial to understand and quantify intrinsic magmatic parameters and how they relate surficial observation of the monitoring network. It is also crucial to understand how intrinsic and extrinsic factors modulate the eruptive behaviour. The key is a multidisciplinary approach to the interconnected magmatic-volcanic system linking subaerial magmatic processes with their surficial manifestations. While attempts at numerical modelling have been made at other volcanic systems (e.g., Campi Flegrei), and timescales have been determined at Mt. Etna for specific eruption and/or eruptive style, it is the first time that the synergic approach combining temporal, chemical and physical evolution with real-time surficial data is proposed to provide a framework to interpret the interconnected magmatic-volcanic system.