Ricerc@Sapienza

In this paper, several classification methods are applied for modeling financial time series with the aim to predict the trend of successive prices. By using a suitable embedding technique, a pattern of past prices is assigned a class if the variation of the next price is over, under or stable with respect to a given threshold. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed in order to verify if the value of such a threshold influences the prediction accuracy. The experimental results on the case study of WTI crude oil commodity show a good classification accuracy of the next (predicted) trend, and the best performance is achieved by the K-Nearest Neighbors classification strategy.