Ricerc@Sapienza

Knowledge on the effects of climate change in a systemcan contribute to the bettermanagement of itswater and
energy resources. This study evaluates the consequences of alterations in the rainfall and temperature patterns
for a hydroelectric plant. The methodology adopted consists of four steps. First, a hydrologicalmodel is developed
for the chosen basin following a semi-distributed and conceptual approach. The hydrological model is calibrated
utilizing the optimization algorithm Shuffled Complex Evolution - University of Arizona (SCE-UA) and then validated.
Secondly, a hydropowermodel is developed for a hydroelectric plant of the chosen basin. The hydropower
model is adjusted to the physical characteristics of the plant. Thirdly, future climate scenarios are extracted from
the literature for the studied area. These scenarios include quantitative and seasonal climate variations, aswell as
different initial reservoir levels. Fourth, the hydrological-hydropowermodel is simulated for 52 scenarios and the
impact of changes in the rainfall and temperature patterns for hydropower generation is evaluated. For each scenario,
thewater storage in the reservoir and energy produced by the plant are analyzed. The financial impact for
extreme scenarios is presented. The methodology is applied to the Três Marias hydroelectric plant at the upper
São Francisco river basin (Brazil) and it can be replicated to any other hydropower system. The results show
that extreme positive values predicted for rainfallwill likely not cause issues to the plant, considering a moderate
rise in temperature. However, negative predictions for rainfall, regardless of changes in temperature, should be
an alert to the authorities responsible for water and energy resources management.