Ricerc@Sapienza

Socotra Island, in the western Indian Ocean, harbors high biodiversity and endemism and makes up the largest part of the Socotra archipelago UNESCO World Heritage site. Its climatic, pedological, and geomorphological characteristics, together with the long geological isolation and inaccessibility, led to the flourishing of unique tree diversity, with great cultural and ecological value. Lately, trees on Socotra are facing new threats linked to the abandonment of traditional management practices, climate change impacts, and growing human pressure. This study assesses the relative influence of environmental factors and human activity as drivers of tree cover and density, which can be used to support land management policies for the conservation of this key local resource. Tree cover and density were assessed on a total of 3600 plots of 0.5 ha each, laid on a regular grid covering the entire area of the island through Collect Earth, a free open source software tool that allows an augmented visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite images. A total of 770,000 trees, with an average of 2.14 trees/ha, were estimated on the island. The collected data was validated by ground surveys in 26 plots. The relative influence of selected predictors (seven environmental, two anthropic) on tree cover and density was analyzed through logistic and survival regression. Tree cover and density were found to be impacted positively by steeper slopes, higher rainfall, and marked precipitation seasonality and negatively by relatively warmer temperatures and a higher sand content in the soil. Distance of each plot from the nearest road and settlement was calculated and neither of these anthropic predictors emerged as significant, indicating that the limited number of trees present are not currently as affected by anthropic pressure, but, instead, their presence is mostly limited by the harsh climatic and pedological factors. However, as human population and development increase, periods of drought rise, and extreme and random climatic events intensify, these additional stresses on the environment could negatively impact the availability of natural resources in the terrestrial environment. Lastly, potential recommendations to the existing conservation policies and Socotra Conservation Zoning Plan are discussed based on the results.