Movements of wide-ranging animals such as large carnivores (e.g. wolves, bears) may be affected in human-modified landscapes to an extent that is currently unknown. The recent recovery of wolves (Canis lupus) throughout the Apennine chain in Italy, combined with recent advances in remote telemetry techniques (i.e., Global Positioning System, GPS) offers an unprecedented opportunity to study and compare wolf space-use patterns wolves across a latitudinal, ecological, and anthropogenic gradient across the entire Apennines chain. In this project, capitalizing on extensive GPS location datasets collected from wolves in at least three different study areas (southern Apennines: Pollino National Park; central Apennines: Abruzzo Lazio and Molise National Park; northern Apennines: Tosco-Emiliano National Park), we aim to: (a) estimate home-range size and configuration of resident wolf packs as well as space-use patterns of transient wolves; (b) determine, on a seasonal basis, the relative role that ecological, environmental, and anthropogenic factors have in shaping home-range location, size, and configuration; (c) develop a Species Distribution Model across the entire Apennine chain based on long-time established wolf packs; (d) describe long-distance dispersal movements and model their environmental and anthropogenic correlates to identify the most relevant areas of functional connectivity across the Apennines, and (e) compare space-use patterns by resident vs rehabilitated wolves to assess the outcome and the efficacy of rehabilitation interventions. By integrating into a Geographical Information System the most updated statistical and modelling techniques, we aim to point out patterns of animal movement at various scales. This knowledge is critical not only to enhance our understanding of the behaviour and ecology of large carnivores living at close quarters with humans, but also to adequately plan their conservation while reducing chances of conflict with humans.
Our project will combine together the most recent tecnological advances in the field of movement ecology, namely: (i) GPS location data, that reflect animal locations through time, providing large sample of highly accurate animal locations for extended period of time; (ii) powerful statistical modelling techniques, comprising Browninan Bridge Movement Models, Generalized Linear Mixed Models, Generalized Additive Mixed Models, and Generalized Estimating Equations, all particularly suited to analyze animal movements and habitat relationships and readibly available in the R environment; (iii) the powerful interface provided by GIS software to relate location and movement data with an array of ecological, environmental, and anthropogenic variables in order to develo spatially-explicit models (and prediction maps) of species-habitat relationships. Our research groups developed a keen expertise in the use of the analytical procedures delineated above, allowing us to capitalize on existing datasets of animal location data. Not only the analyses we are planning will provide a significant improvement of our knowledge on space-use patterns as a fundamental component of the wolfì natural hystory traits, but the expected results will also enhance our understanding of the behavioural responses by wolves to human presence and infrasctructures and their implications in terms of wolf management and conservation in a highly populated country such as Italy. Compared to less populated countries where large carnivore species still thrive in highly pristine and undisturbed environments, our results will be of interest to a broader audience of ecologist and widlife practitioners as they will describe the expected conditions in case nature encroachement by humans will progress worldwide. As the management goal of protecting viable populations of large carnivores in highly populated coubtries while minimizing conflicts with humans is an extremely challenging task, our findings will also provide practical insights into the minimum spatial and habitat requirements needed to allow a functional coexistence between humans and wildlife.