Growing interest in the impacts of climate change in poor countries has sparked attention on the relationship between temperature and growth dynamics. Using LSMS-ISA National Panel Survey by the World Bank (which are available for a subset of Sub Saharan African countries: Tanzania, Uganda, Nigeria, Malawi, Ethiopia, Niger) , the aim is fostering research at the micro level studying the relationship between rural household consumption growth and temperature shocks by disentangling short-term and long-term effects. According to the literature in the field, temperature shocks are supposed to have a negative and significant impact on households' growth if their initial consumption lies below a critical threshold (to be determined empirically). This implies a slow convergence process among households. The focus of the research is investigating further the likely transmission channels (e.g., agricultural yields, labour productivity, ecc.) of the weather-development relationship. From a policy perspective, our analysis is a further test - at the micro level - of the Schelling Conjecture that development might be the best strategy against climate change impacts. Also, by looking at the main transmission channels, we will provide tailored policy recommendations to reduce the negative impacts of global warming in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The contributions of the research to the current state of the art are the following.
First, it complements aggregate growth - climate empirics with available micro panel data, by providing evidence on the (short-run vs long-run) micro causal relationship between temperature, poverty and growth. Second, it links the weather-economic growth literature with the development literature on poverty traps, by applying the tools and models of the latter to the research questions of the former. Third, it contributes to the geography vs institutions debate, by providing some micro evidence on the issue. Fourth, it contributes to the development literature, by testing for consumption vs asset smoothing, which has been rarely been done according to Carter and Lybbert (2012) ; and by disentangling the precipitation impacts, when controlling for temperature shocks (often ignored in development literature). Fifth, it tests empirically the relevance a number of possible transmission channels. Sixth, it provides key policy recommendations to cope with climate change tailored to poor farmers in rural SSA.