The causal links between adverse shocks (economic, climatic, conflict-related, health-related, etc.) and food insecurity is a core issue in development economics. Recently, the nexus between these dynamics (not least the recent pandemic shock) and positioning of smallholder households along the market chains has become an important research question, with relevant implications for policymaking. In particular, research is still scarce and ambiguous on whether closer connections to major markets can lower these households¿ vulnerability and avoid the long-lasting effects of shocks on their food security. This research project aims to shed light on these critical issues by using new data and new methods. Specifically, i) we combine new cross-country household data - 13 countries from three continents, for a total of almost 20,000 original household observations - from the micro-level impact assessment database of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) with data on travel distances to major markets and population centers from a recently developed Global Map of Accessibility; ii) we apply a mix of causal inference (instrumental variable regressions) and machine learning methodologies (the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator LASSO) to explore the causal links highlighted above. The research has relevant implications on policymaking since it provides broader empirical evidence on the role of market chains on households' vulnerability.
These are the key expected results of the proposed research project:
- Heterogeneity in market chains' positioning is associated with heterogeneity in households' food security induced by heterogeneous patterns of resilience capacity;
- This empirical evidence, coupled with a detailed analysis of the various market characteristics in the different investigated countries, inform policymaking by helping in dampening the negative impacts of market shocks on household welfare/food security;
These outcomes would boost knowledge on key research questions in the field of development economics, such as what is the nexus between vulnerability and food insecurity dynamics and the positioning of households along the within-country market chains, which has relevant implications for policymaking and the implementation of within-country trade and development policies. Besides, research is still scarce and ambiguous on whether a better positioning along the market chain and closer connections to major markets can dampen the negative consequences of adverse (economic, climatic, conflict-related, but also pandemic) shocks on household vulnerability and avoid long-lasting effects on their food security levels. Our project would provide answers to these resilience-related issues, Finally, as mentioned above in the literature review, it is also still unclear whether better-positioned households are more resilient than more isolated ones. Indeed, one of the expected results listed above would be to shed light on this potential casual relationship.
In sum, this research project, we aim to shed light on several key and unsettled issues in development microeconomics. We believe that, by using new data and new methods, we will be able to provide several contributions to the existing literature which, to the best of knowledge of the state-of-the-art in the field, are currently not addressed or only scarcely investigated.