Ricerc@Sapienza

Anticipating species distributions in space and time is necessary for effective biodiversity conservation and for prioritising management interventions. This is especially true when considering invasive species. In such a case, anticipating their spread is important to effectively plan management actions. However, considering uncertainty in the output of species distribution models is critical for correctly interpreting results and avoiding inappropriate decision-making. In particular, when dealing with species inventories,and avoiding inappropriate decision-making.

In this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe ?ora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate scenarios in modern time, 2030, 2070 and 2080. Our results showed that A. squarrosum has a suitable habitat in ca. 1 million km2 (33% of our study area) and will likely experience a northward shift, gaining new habitat in Azerbaijan, Armenia and North of Afghanistan in the near decades.