Ricerc@Sapienza

Scholars advocate that participating in the market chain increases household food security, but the empirical evidence is scarce. We will shed light on this issue by applying a hybrid empirical approach - which combines machine learning algorithms and causal inference methods - on a unique cross-country household sample, the IFAD10 database. Specifically, we will test for the causal linkages between market positioning, resilience, and vulnerability. We expect that the results will confirm that households positioned downstream to the market chain are more resilient to shocks and, in turn, experience better food security levels (i.e., they are less vulnerable to food insecurity). A mediation analysis will be carried out to investigate whether participation in the market chain accounts for a significant share of the positive effects of household resilience on food security. These findings would suggest that policymakers should prioritize interventions to improve market positioning other than participation as key means to boost household resilience and, in turn, decrease welfare fluctuations and vulnerability to food insecurity.