Ricerc@Sapienza

Capture recapture models are frequently used to estimate the size of an elusive population. In this research we will focus on specific criminal populations as drug traffickers and prostitution exploiters. We will investigate the possibility to take account of heterogeneity of these illegal populations by using mixture models. Moreover, since these populations present also particular behavioral effects that may affect the capture patterns we will consider capture recapture models where such behaviors are accounted for by inflating specific capture histories. The methodology proposed will be evaluated by official data sets provided by the Ministry of Justice. In addition we will use also real data available from the literature on capture-recapture models , where the issues of heteregeneity and behavioral effect have been recognized.