Weather shocks, growth and poverty thresholds: an empirical analysis using household surveys

Anno
2017
Proponente Pierluigi Montalbano - Professore Ordinario
Sottosettore ERC del proponente del progetto
Componenti gruppo di ricerca
Componente Categoria
Marco Letta Dottorando/Assegnista/Specializzando componente il gruppo di ricerca
Componente Qualifica Struttura Categoria
Richard Tol Full Professor Department of Economics, University of Sussex (UK) Altro personale Sapienza o esterni
Marco D'Errico Lead econometrician Resilience Analysis and Policies team, FAO Altro personale Sapienza o esterni
Abstract

Growing interest in the impacts of climate change in poor countries has sparked attention on the relationship between temperature and growth dynamics. Using LSMS-ISA National Panel Survey by the World Bank (which are available for a subset of Sub Saharan African countries: Tanzania, Uganda, Nigeria, Malawi, Ethiopia, Niger) , the aim is fostering research at the micro level studying the relationship between rural household consumption growth and temperature shocks by disentangling short-term and long-term effects. According to the literature in the field, temperature shocks are supposed to have a negative and significant impact on households' growth if their initial consumption lies below a critical threshold (to be determined empirically). This implies a slow convergence process among households. The focus of the research is investigating further the likely transmission channels (e.g., agricultural yields, labour productivity, ecc.) of the weather-development relationship. From a policy perspective, our analysis is a further test - at the micro level - of the Schelling Conjecture that development might be the best strategy against climate change impacts. Also, by looking at the main transmission channels, we will provide tailored policy recommendations to reduce the negative impacts of global warming in Sub-Saharan Africa.

ERC
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