A runway veer-off risk assessment based on frequency model
The attention to airport safety-related issues has grown fast in recent decades. The experience gained in these themes reveals the importance of assessing and mitigating the accident risk in the airport context. This research project intends to define a quantitative risk assessment method useful to calculate the current level of risk for different runway codes and types of movement. As all risk models, also this one will be composed of two sub-models:
1) a cumulative probability distribution model which describes the final position of an aircraft after a veer-off;
2) a damage model, which considers statistical mechanical damages and injuries.
International database will be observed to collect data on the final position of the aircrafts after a veer-off accident.
Geotechnical and geometrical characteristics of the Cleared and Graded Area (CGA) width play a fundamental role in reducing veer-off risk. Therefore, an enlargement of CGA could be an effective strategy for safety in airports: the new method allows the verification and the design of the safety area around the runway.