Bayesian Population Size Estimation with a Single Sample
The estimation of the size of a finite population is a problem encountered
in a variety of applications.
One standard statistical approach relies on the well-known mark-recapture
sampling, which may require high costs and cause disturbance to the population
of interest.
These considerations have motivated the search for alternative sampling
strategies that allow to estimate the size of a population from a single capture occasion. Hettiarachchige [Hettiarachchige C.K.H., PhD Thesis, University of Melbourne, http://hdl.handle.net/11343/118636, (2016)] proposes a method that is viable when the population is made of only two generations: a group of generators and one of generated units.
We investigate Bayesian methods alternative to the frequentist estimators used by the original author. Preliminary results give evidence of competing performance of the Bayesian approach, which in some cases sensibly outperforms the frequentist alternatives.