Ricerc@Sapienza

The research proposed aims to develop large scale dynamical models for viruses spread, including the modelling of climate effects. The dependency of viruses¿ diffusions from climate characteristics is a well-established fact. Models of epidemics spreads which include this effect usually works on prefixed scenarios or making use of recent acquired data. The result is that in both cases, the dynamics of the climate changes is not considered, working at steady state for supposed situations.
The point of view assumed in this project is the definition of a unique integrated mathematical model which considers both the epidemics aspects and the climate ones, being able to produce simulated effects also during the changing of climate characteristics, independently from the fact that these changes are fast or slow, under real or supposed conditions. Moreover, the continuous spatial representation of the epidemic spreads allows to work with geographical maps of diseases diffusion.
This idea to integrate in an effective way the climate evolution to the epidemics diffusion is supported by the fact that they both are strongly related to the environment over which they evolve. In fact, the orography, the temperature, the presence of water surfaces, the oceanic currents, the presence of large human artefacts, can influence the weather changes and evolutions; but they also affect the social and the economic conditions, the general health status, the density of human settlements, the level of pollution, which are strongly related to the epidemics developments and diffusions.
Once it is obtained and validated, a powerful tool for previsions of actual scenarios of infections will be available. Moreover, an approach to the control, acting on the habits and the local conditions as well as on the population migrations and on the long distance travels, can be followed, making use of optimal control techniques which can easily take into account also resources limitations.