Ricerc@Sapienza

Climate policy-making and decarbonization require instruments to create and manage economic expectations. There is increasing concern that the existing panoply of domestic (emission trading schemes, regulation, taxes) and external instruments (climate change treaties) be insufficient to anchor expectations to decarbonization and isolate abatement policies from risk to be reneged or insufficiently implemented.

Currently, potential distribution of plant species is represented by different uses of presence/absence indicators or by density-dominance-based ones such as the Importance Value (I.V.), and their geographical representation is based on statistical models (Random forest model, General Regression Models etc.) relating these indicators with climate and physical features of a given territory.

As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline dueto climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges inecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing threecomponents of climate-related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard.We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climatechange and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g.

Understanding changes in species distributions is essential to disentangle the mechanisms that drive their responses to anthropogenic habitat modification. Here we analyse the past (1970s) and current (2017) distribution of 204 species of terrestrial non-volant mammals to identify drivers of recent contraction and expansion in their range. We find 106 species lost part of their past range, and 40 of them declined by >50%. The key correlates of this contraction are large body mass, increase in air temperature, loss of natural land, and high human population density.

Ongoing perturbations in the global climate have triggered changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme climatic events, including drought. Increasingly common or intense droughts have threatened ungulates. Intensifying trend of drought has been observed in China since the 1980s. We assessed drought vulnerability of 60 ungulate taxa distributed in China by synthesizing information on drought exposure and intrinsic vulnerability related to biological traits.

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine-resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity.

Elevational gradients are characterized by strong abiotic variation within small geographical distances and provide a powerful tool to evaluate community response to variation in climatic and other environmental factors. We explored how temperature and habitat diversity shape the diversity of holometabolous predator and parasitoid insects along temperate elevational gradients in the European Alps. We surveyed insect communities along 12 elevational transects that were selected to separate effects of temperature from those of habitat diversity.

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates.

Aim
We sought to assess different megafaunal species responses to the intense climatic changes that characterized the end of the Quaternary.

Location
Eurasia.

Methods
We used species distribution modelling, niche overlap tests and co?occurrence analysis to model climatic niche evolution and change in six different megafauna species, including three extinct (woolly mammoth, woolly rhino and steppe bison) and three extant (red deer, wolf and reindeer) species.

The first reports on the rock art of north Africa were written in the mid-nineteenth century. Since then, rock art has become a key area of African archaeological research.