Short-term advantages vs. long-term uncertainty in Italy-China cooperation
The Italian Five Stars-League government has on several occasion advocated enhanced cooperation with the People’s Republic of China, especially within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the massive infrastructure project launched by China in 2013. The goal of this paper is to contribute to the debate drawing from International relations theory’s and political science’s concepts to determine whether closer cooperation with China would be feasible and beneficial for Italy in the short term and, then, whether these advantages are sustainable in the longer term given Italy’s trade position and economic system, the shifting international context and BRI’s progress. The key finding is that while short-term benefits may stem from stronger ties with China, in the longer-term several factors will undermine the cooperation: the worsening of US-China and EU-China relations that may eventually push Italy to take a stand against China. the ambiguities surrounding BRI’s future as it shows structural flaws, and the over-dependence that Rome could suffer from strengthening commercial ties with Beijing. The Italian government should consider these elements in order to ponder the advisability of strengthening relations with China.