Effetti del cambiamento climatico sul rischio di estinzione dei mammiferi

Proponente Carlo Rondinini - Professore Ordinario
Sottosettore ERC del proponente del progetto
Componenti gruppo di ricerca

Our aim is to develop the models necessary to make quantitative projections of change in extinction risk for terrestrial mammals under scenarios of anthropogenic-driven changes in land use and climate.

We will define a bio-climatic envelope for each terrestrial mammal species (n~5020), by randomly sampling points within their distribution range and we will use it to project the range under four scenarios of climate change over 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) at 30' resolution and 5-yr intervals between 1970 and 2050 with an ensemble modelling approach. We will use a data set of the projected suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals at 6¿ resolution (~10 km) inside the projected ranges in the same temporal window. This data set is based on the GLOBIO/HYDE land cover change projections that build on the IMAGE model. We will use four socio-economic development scenarios envisioning respectively top-down and bottom-up societal process, and higher and lower attention to sustainability.

We will use the extent of suitable habitat and its change through time to estimate the size and trend of species populations, extent of occurrence, and area of occupancy. We will then use these estimate to calculate a category of extinction risk for each species at each time step between 1970 and 2050 according to the IUCN Red List criteria.

We will aggregate the extinction risk calculated across all species into a Red List Index for each time step. We will compare retrospective projections of species status based on land use and climate change from 1996 to 2008, to the observed changes in species status in the same time period recorded in the Red List, to evaluate the robustness of the method. Then we will compare the effect of the four different scenarios of socio-economic growth on projected biodiversity loss. We will verify which, if any, of them achieves the best outcome in terms of future biodiversity conservation.


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