Ricerc@Sapienza

Recreation and tourism represent a major opportunity and connection for managing the interaction between people and ecosystems. The aim of the project is to identify iconic mammal species associated to wildlife watching economic revenue, and project their future distribution to estimate the impact of alternative socio-economic scenarios on the services they supply. Projections will be based on coupled RCP-SSP scenarios of climate change (IPSL Global Circulation Model) and land use change (Land Use Harmonzation V2). The effect of contrasting scenarios on ecosystem service supply will be tested: strong climate mitigation (RCP2.6-SSP1), middle-of-the-way (RCP4.5-SSP3), and fossil-fuelled economy (RCP8.5-SSP5). The difference in distribution of iconic mammals in protected areas between scenarios will represent the opportunity lost or gained globally for wilidlife watching revenue.